How Hard Will This Shipment Actually Be?

You told the CFO, "6 weeks for UAE." You're at week 10. Here's the framework that would have told you the truth before you committed.

Your CFO asks: "What are delivery timelines for the three deals in pipeline?"

Germany. India. UAE.

You answer with gut feel. "Germany, 6 weeks. India, 8. UAE, probably 6-8—it's business-friendly."

Two months later: Germany shipped on time. India took 11 weeks. UAE is in a bonded warehouse because you didn't have a consignee.

Your CFO wants to know why you committed to timelines you couldn't deliver.

"UAE felt easier than it was" isn't landing.

The Cost of Gut Feel

Three deals. One company. Last year.

Germany: Demo to commercial customer. Quoted 6 weeks. Shipped in 5. ✓

India: Permanent export to research institute. Quoted 8 weeks. Licensing slow, end-user verification required extra docs. Shipped in 11. Customer frustrated.

UAE: Demo to government ministry. Quoted 6 weeks. No consignee identified. License couldn't be submitted. Embassy certification required. Shipped in 14 weeks. Missed the event. Competitor filled the gap.

Gut feel: 1 for 3.

"Gut feel gets Germany right. It misses India. It completely misjudges UAE. You need a system."

What People Do Instead

"I'll ask the person who knows."Now they're a bottleneck. When they're on vacation, decisions wait. When they leave, knowledge walks out.

"We'll treat everything as complex."You quote 12 weeks for Germany. Competitors quote 6—correctly. Your conservatism costs deals.

"We'll figure it out as we go."The UAE approach. Sometimes works. When it doesn't, you're explaining to the board why revenue slipped.

The Six Dimensions

Score each dimension 1 (low) to 3 (high). Total: 6-18.

1. Movement Scenario

• 1: Demo with return, single destination
• 2: Pilot/trial, repair/return, multiple legs
• 3: Permanent export, multi-jurisdiction transit

2. Product Classification

• 1: Non-controlled, no DG
• 2: Dual-use, Class 9 batteries
• 3: Military list, Class 7 radioactive, multiple DG classes

3. Destination Risk

• 1: EU, US, Japan, Australia
• 2: India, Brazil, UAE, Turkey, Singapore
• 3: China, Russia, Israel (defense), sanctioned-adjacent*

4. End-User Profile

• 1: Commercial, verified, existing relationship
• 2: Research/university, new customer, government (non-defense)
• 3: Government/military, defense-adjacent, state-owned enterprise

5. Timeline Pressure

• 1: More than 12 weeks
• 2: 6-12 weeks
• 3: Less than 6 weeks

6. Documentation Requirements

• 1: Standard docs only
• 2: End-user certificates, destination-specific requirements
• 3: Apostille chain, embassy certification, LC document triggers

*Sanctioned-adjacent: Countries with elevated re-export risk—Belarus, certain Central Asian states, jurisdictions with weak export controls near sanctioned destinations.

Interpreting the Score

6-9: Standard. Manageable internally. Quote normal timelines.

10-14: Elevated. Add buffer. Identify which dimensions are driving complexity. Consider support.

15-18: High. Specialist support recommended. Extended timelines. Multiple dimensions need management.

Not sure how to score a dimension? That's your signal to dig deeper before you commit.

The Three Deals, Scored

Germany (demo, commercial customer):Movement (1) + Product (2) + Destination (1) + End-user (1) + Timeline (2) + Docs (2) = 9 → Standard. 6 weeks was correct.

India (permanent export, research institute):Movement (2) + Product (2) + Destination (2) + End-user (2) + Timeline (2) + Docs (2) = 12 → Elevated. 8 weeks was optimistic. 10-12 was real.

UAE (demo, government ministry):Movement (1) + Product (2) + Destination (2) + End-user (3) + Timeline (3) + Docs (3) = 14 → Elevated/High. 6 weeks was fantasy. 10-12 minimum—with support.

The scorecard catches India and UAE before commitment. Two minutes of scoring. Weeks of pain avoided.

Two More Checks

These don't score 1-3 but can derail any shipment:

Transport mode: Can your cargo fly? CAO only? How frequent? Sea only? Add 4+ weeks.

Financial compatibility: EXW + LC? You may lose control of documents you need to get paid. Flag before contract. (See Stop Treating Regulated Hardware Like Parcels)

Who Runs This, When

Sales: Quick score at opportunity stage. Before quoting timelines.

Ops: Validate before committing. Before signing contracts.

Rule: If any dimension is unclear, that's your signal to get answers—not to guess.

When to Re-Score

Run at opportunity stage. Re-run when:

• Destination changes
• End-user changes
• Timeline compresses
• Product configuration changes
• Payment terms change

A 9 in September can become a 14 in December.

Key Takeaways

"Feels harder" isn't defensible. Score it. Six dimensions. Two minutes.

6-9 = standard. 10-14 = elevated. 15+ = high. Know which bucket before you commit.

Gut feel bats .333. It gets Germany right. It misses India. It misjudges UAE completely.

Run at opportunity stage. Before you quote. Before you sign.

Re-run when things change. Deals evolve. Scores shift.

What To Do Now

Score your pipeline.

Download the Complexity Scorecard from FlowSpex.

Scoring 9 or under?

You're probably fine. Use the scorecard. Keep documentation clean. You may not need us.

Scoring 10-14?

Elevated complexity. Identify which dimensions are driving the score. Request a triage call to validate your timeline.

Scoring 15+?

Contact FlowSpex for complexity assessment. High complexity shipments benefit from planning together. We use this same scorecard to triage every engagement.

Contact FlowSpex

FlowSpex built this framework from 20+ years of moving controlled hardware. We use it ourselves. Now you can too.

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