Cross-Border Intelligence Brief — Week of 23 February 2026

IEEPA tariff ruling creates refund questions. OFSI 70% penalty discount launched. EU-Mercosur advances. Deutsche Bahn DDoS signals infrastructure vulnerability.

Lead

US Tariff Authority Struck Down — Refund Window Opens

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize presidential tariff imposition, invalidating fentanyl tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and secondary tariffs. Estimated $100–300B in collected tariffs now in refund limbo. Treasury expected to clarify scope by May. (Source)

Translation: If you paid IEEPA tariffs on US-bound shipments, there may be a refund path — but the window to preserve claims could be narrow.

→ Document your IEEPA tariff payments now. Engage customs counsel on whether to file protests on liquidated entries. Plan for both refund and no-refund scenarios in Q2–Q3 budgeting.

Signals

OFSI Launches 70% Penalty Discount Framework

New UK enforcement guidance: 30% discount for voluntary disclosure, 20% for settlement, 20% for Early Account Scheme participation. Fixed penalties of £5,000–£10,000 for procedural breaches. Signals intent to double maximum penalties to £2 million. (Source)

→ If you have UK sanctions exposure, early engagement just became financially compelling. Build disclosure protocols now.

EU-Mercosur Agreement Signed — But Delayed

Partnership agreement creates a 700+ million consumer market with 90% tariff elimination. But Parliament requested Court of Justice review, likely delaying implementation by two years. Self-certification for origin determination could reduce admin burden once live. (Source)

→ Don't restructure sourcing yet, but start modelling which products qualify for preferential treatment.

Regime Watch

  • OFSI ownership/control consultation: UK seeking input on how firms implement sanctions control tests. Deadline April 13. If your beneficial ownership structures are complex, submit comments.
  • US tariff policy volatile: Following IEEPA ruling, new 10% global import surcharge imposed under Section 122 through July 24. Overlapping compliance obligations with invalidated tariffs.
  • Deutsche Bahn DDoS: 24-hour systems outage hit German rail infrastructure. Signal for logistics-dependent exporters: carrier vetting should now include cyber resilience questions.

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